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National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration
Chart shows the tropical storms and hurricanes over the
last 100 years and the dates on which they existed
Experts predict greater
storm activity
in Caribbean for next two months
By the A.M. Newspapers News Service
(Oct. 6, 2011) Hurricane experts are predicting double the normal
hurricane activity in the Caribbean basin from now until the official
end of the season Nov. 30.
The prediction comes from Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray at
Colorado State University. They said the increased activity would be
the result of a combination of La Niña conditions in the Pacific
and warm Caribbean basin sea surface temperatures.
The two climate scientists operate the tropical Meteorological Project
at the university. Gray has been involved in climate forecasts for 40
years. Klotzbach joined him in 2000. Their forecasts are world famous.
The men predicted a very active Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2011
and the above-average probability of a major hurricane landfall. They
said their data suggested that there wold be nine hurricanes and 16
named storms this season. There have been that many so far.
This is the first year that the men have issued a forecast for October
and November. A report from the project said they decided to issue the
forecast this year because Klotzbach has demonstrated that late-season
Caribbean basin activity can be predicted with just two indicators, one
being the state of El Niño or La Niña in the Pacific. The
other indicator is the size of the area that is warmer than 28.5
degrees C in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, the report said.
That's 83 degrees F.
They said they had been testing the model on data from 1982 to 2010 and
others date from 1900.
Most Caribbean storm activity takes place alongside La Niña,
which is the cold opposite of the warmer El Niño, and when the
ocean temperature is warmer than normal as it is now.
About a third of the hurricanes and tropical storms developed after
Oct. 1 over the last 100 years, said the project.
Right now just Tropical Storm Philippe is being tracked in the
Atlantic. It is some 800 kilometers or 495 miles south southeast of
Bermuda and still not a threat to land, according to the U.S. National
Hurricane Center. However, there are two low pressure areas in the
Pacific that might develop into storms, the center said Wednesday.
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